Bayesian Methods: General Background
: We note the main points of history, as a framework on which to hang many background remarks concerning the nature and motivation of Bayesian/Maximum Entropy methods. Experience has shown that these are needed in order to understand recent work and problems. A more complete account of the history, with many more details and references, is given in Jaynes (1978). The following discussion is essentially nontechnical; the aim is only to convey a little introductory "feel" for our outlook, purpose, and terminology, and to alert newcomers to common pitfalls of misunderstanding. HERODOTUS 2 BERNOULLI 2 BAYES 4 LAPLACE 5 JEFFREYS 6 COX 8 SHANNON 9 COMMUNICATION DIFFICULTIES 10 IS OUR LOGIC OPEN OR CLOSED? 13 DOWNWARD ANALYSIS IN STATISTICAL MECHANICS 14 CURRENT PROBLEMS 15 REFERENCES 17 ? Presented at the Fourth Annual Workshop on Bayesian/Maximum Entropy Methods, University of Calgary, August 1984. In the Proceedings Volume, Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods in Applied Statistics, J. H....