Timing of Antiviral Treatment Initiation is Critical to Reduce SARS‐CoV‐2 Viral Load

Authors: António Gonçalves, Julie Bertrand, Ruian Ke, Emmanuelle Comets, Xavier de Lamballerie, Denis Malvy, Andrés Pizzorno, Olivier Terrier, Manuel Rosa‐Calatrava, France Mentré, Patrick F. Smith, Alan S. Perelson, Jérémie Guedj - CPT Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology 2020 cited by 237

We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than two logs, drug efficacy needs to be > 90% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 60% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 6-87% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severely ill patients.