Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

著者: Christopher J L Murray, Charlton Callender, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Vinay Srinivasan, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Solomón Mequanente Abay, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Jemal Abdela, Ahmed Abdelalim, Omar Abdel‐Rahman, Alireza Abdi, Nasrin Abdoli, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Haftom Temesgen Abebe, Molla Abebe, Abebe Zegeye, Teshome Abuka Abebo, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Victor Aboyans, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Daisy Maria Xavier de Abreu, Aklilu Roba Abrham, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh, Manfred Accrombessi, Pawan Acharya, Abdu A. Adamu, Oladimeji Adebayo, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mina G Adib, Arsène Kouablan Adou, José Carmelo Adsuar, Mohsen Afarideh, Ashkan Afshin, Gina Agarwal, Kareha M Agesa, Sargis A. Aghayan, Sutapa Agrawal, Alireza Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Sayem Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, A. S. Akanda, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Mohammed Akibu, Rufus Akinyemi, Tomi Akinyemiju, Nadia Akseer, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Animut Alebel, Alicia V Aleman, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Raghib Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ala’a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Ali Almasi, Jordi Alonso, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Azmeraw T. Amare, Walid Ammar, Nahla Anber, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Sofia Androudi, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Hossein Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Olatunde Aremu, Habtamu Abera Areri, Nicholas Arian, Johan Ärnlöv, Al Artaman, Krishna K Aryal, Hamid Asayesh, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom, Reza Assadi, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Suleman Atique, Madhu Sudhan Atteraya, Marcel Ausloos, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Yohanes Ayele, Rakesh Ayer, Ayuk Betrand Tambe, Peter Azzopardi, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Arefeh Babazadeh, Hamid Badali, Alaa Badawi, Ayele Geleto Bali, Maciej Banach, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lope H. Barrero, Huda Basaleem, Quique Bassat, Arindam Basu, Bernhard T. Baune, Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Abate Bekele Belachew, Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay, Ezra Belay, Saba Abraham Belay, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Michelle L. Bell, Aminu K. Bello, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Gilles Bergeron, Adugnaw Berhane, Adam E. Berman, Eduardo Bernabé, Robert S. Bernstein, Gregory J Bertolacci, Mircea Beuran, Suraj Bhattarai, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Belete Biadgo, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Nigus Bililign, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Sait Mentes Birlik, Charles Birungi, Tuhin Biswas, Hailemichael Bizuneh, Archie Bleyer, Berrak Bora Başara, Cristina Bosetti, Soufiane Boufous, Oliver J. Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Michael Brainin, Alexandra Bražinová, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Jerry D. Brewer, Paul Svitil Briant, Gabrielle B. Britton, Roy Burstein, Reinhard Busse, Zahid A Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Julio César Campuzano, Jorge Cano, Mate Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Juan Jesús Carrero, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Franz Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Alanur Çavlin, Ester Cerin, Julian Chalek, Hsing‐Yi Chang, Jung‐Chen Chang, Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Ken Lee Chin, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal Chitheer, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Rajiv Chowdhury, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Flavia Cicuttini, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Rafael Moreira Claro, Daniel Collado‐Mateo, Haley Comfort, María Magdalena Constantin, Sara Conti, Cyrus Cooper, Leslie T. Cooper, Leslie Cornaby, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Monica Cortinovis, Megan Costa, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Christopher S. Crowe, Petra Čukelj, Matthew Cunningham, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I. Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, José das Neves, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Aditya Prasad Dash, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Kairat Davletov, Diego De Leo, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Meaza Girma Degefa, Louisa Degenhardt, Tizta Tilahun Degfie, Selina Deiparine, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Balem Demtsu, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Don C. Des Jarlais, Getenet Dessie, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Daniel Dicker, Eric L. Ding, Girmaye Dinsa, Shirin Djalalinia, Huyen Phuc, Клара Докова, David Teye Doku, Kate Dolan, Kerrie Doyle, Tim Driscoll, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, André Rodrigues Durães, Soheil Ebrahimpour, David Edvardsson, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Ziad El‐Khatib, Iqbal Elyazar, Ahmadali Enayati, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Reza Esmaeili, Alireza Esteghamati, Sadaf Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Hamed Fakhim, Tamer H. Farag, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, André Faro, Maryam S. Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Kairsten Fay, Mir Sohail Fazeli, Valery L. Feigin, Andrea B Feigl, Fariba Feizy, Ama Pokuaa Fenny, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Irina Filip, Samuel Finegold, Florian Fischer, Luísa Sório Flor, Nataliya A Foigt, Kyle J Foreman, Carla Fornari, Thomas Fürst, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Nancy Fullman, Emmanuela Gakidou, Silvano Gallus, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Morsaleh Ganji, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Gregory M Garcia, Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Teshome Gebre, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Ricard Genova-Maleras, Peter W. Gething, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami, Reza Ghadimi, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Maryam Ghasemi‐Kasman, Hesam Ghiasvand, Mamata Ghimire, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Paramjit Gill, Tiffany K Gill, Giorgia Giussani, E. V. Gnedovskaya, Srinivas Goli, Ricardo Santiago Gomez, Hector Gómez‐Dantés, Philimon Gona, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C. Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Ayman Grada, Giuseppe Grosso, H. C. Gugnani, Jingwen Guo, Yuming Guo, Prakash C. Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Juanita A. Haagsma, Vladimir Hachinski, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Alexis J. Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Hamidreza Haririan, Josep María Haro, Mehedi Hasan, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Yihua He, Akbar Hedayatizadeh‐Omran, Mohamed Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Behnam Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Nathaniel J Henry, Claudiu Herţeliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu, Michael K. Hole, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Praveen Hoogar, Hung Chak Ho, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, Meimanat Hosseini‐Chavoshi, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsaïri, Thomas Hsiao, Guoqing Hu, John J. Huang, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Ehimario Igumbor, Chad Ikeda, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, Asnake Ararsa Irenso, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Oluwaseyi O. Isehunwa, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Leila Jahangiry, Nader Jahanmehr, Sudhir Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Moti Tolera Jalu, Spencer L James, Simerjot K Jassal, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S. Ji, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Suresh Jungari, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Rizwan Kalani, U Kapil, Manoochehr Karami, Behzad Karami Matin, André Karch, Corine Karema, Seyed M Karimi, Amir Kasaeian, Dessalegn H Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Tesfaye Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes Kassa, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Anshul Kastor, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Seifu Kebede, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Grant Rodgers Kemp, André Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Alireza Khajavi, Nauman Khalid, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Tripti Khanna, Mona M Khater, Alireza Khatony, Zahra Khazaeipour, Habibolah Khazaie, Abdullah T Khoja, Ardeshir Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam, Daniel N Kiirithio, Paul E. Kilgore, Daniel Kim, Jun Yup Kim, Young‐Eun Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Yohannes Kinfu, Sanjay Kinra, Adnan Kısa, Mika Kivimäki, Sonali Kochhar, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Tufa Kolola, Jacek A Kopec, Margaret Kosek, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Sanjay Krishnaswami, Kristopher J Krohn, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Burcu Küçük Biçer, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Fekede Asefa Kumsa, Michael Kutz, Sheetal D Lad, Alessandra Lafranconi, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Hilton Y. Lam, Faris Hasan Lami, Justin J. Lang, Sonia Lanksy, Van Charles Lansingh, Dennis Odai Laryea, Zohra S Lassi, Arman Latifi, Avula Laxmaiah, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, James B. Lee, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Samson Leta, Miriam Levi, Shanshan Li, Xiaohong Li, Li Y, Juan Liang, Xiaofeng Liang, Misgan Legesse Liben, Lee‐Ling Lim, Miteku Andualem Limenih, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Raimundas Lunevičius, Crispin Mabika, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Mark T. Mackay, Fabiana Madotto, Tarek Abd Elaziz Mahmood, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Marek Majdán, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Manzoor Ahmad Malik, Abdullah Al Mamun, Wondimu Ayele Manamo, Ana-Laura Manda, Srikanth Mangalam, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, LG Mantovani, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Dadi Marami, Joemer C Maravilla, Wagner Marcenes, Shakhnazarova Marina, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Winfried März, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Tivani P. Mashamba-Thompson, Felix Masiye, Amanda J. Mason‐Jones, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Manu Raj Mathur, Pallab K Maulik, Mohsen Mazidi, John J. McGrath, Suresh Mehata, Sanjay Mehendale, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ravi Mehrotra, Saeed Mehrzadi, Kala M. Mehta, Varshil Mehta, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam Meles, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, George A. Mensah, Seid Tiku Mereta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Yodé Miangotar, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R. Miller, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, GK Mini, Parvaneh Mirabi, Andreea Mirică, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Babak Moazen, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Moslem Mohammadi, Noushin Mohammadifard, Maryam Mohammadi‐Khanaposhtani, Mohammed A. Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Glen Mola, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Julio Montañez, Ghobad Moradi, Mahmoudreza Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Mehdi Moradinazar, Paula Moraga, Joana Morgado-da-Costa, Rintaro Mori, Shane D. Morrison, Abbas Mosapour, Marilita M. Moschos, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Achenef Asmamaw Muche, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Ulrich Müeller, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Kate Muller, Tasha Murphy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Murthy, Jonah Musa, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Muthupandian Saravanan, Jean B. Nachega, Gabriele Nagel, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Azin Nahvijou, Gurudatta Naik, Paulami Naik, Farid Najafi, Luigi Naldi, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Haseeb Nawaz, Busisiwe P. Ncama, Nahid Neamati, Ionuţ Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Subas Neupane, Charles R. Newton, Frida Ngalesoni, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Grant Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Molly R Nixon, Shuhei Nomura, Mehdi Noroozi, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Hamid Reza Nouri, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Mohammad Reza Nowroozi, Alypio Nyandwi, Peter S. Nyasulu, Christopher M Odell, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Okechukwu S. Ogah, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Anselm Okoro, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Pedro R. Olivares, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Sok King Ong, Alberto Ortíz, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Erika Ota, Brenda Achieng Otieno, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa Owolabi, Abayomi Samuel Oyekale, P A Mahesh, Smita Pakhalé, Abhijit Pakhare, Adrian Pană, Basant Kumar Panda, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Achyut Raj Pandey, Eun‐Kee Park, Hadi Parsian, Shanti Patel, Snehal T Patil, Ajay Patle, George Patton, Vishnupriya Rao Paturi, Deepak Paudel, Marcel Moraes Pedroso, Emmanuel Peprah, David M. Pereira, Norberto Perico, Konrad Pesudovs, William A. Petri, Max Petzold, Maxwell Pierce, David M. Pigott, Julian David Pillay, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Guilherme V. Polanczyk, Maarten J. 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Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Hosein Safari, Yahya Safari, Roya Safari‐Faramani, Mahdi Safdarian, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Haniye Sadat Sajadi, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Nasir Salam, Joseph S Salama, Payman Salamati, Raphael de Freitas Saldanha, Zikria Saleem, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Joshua A. Salomon, Sundeep Santosh Salvi, Inbal Salz, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sâo José, Mayank Sardana, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Satish Saroshe, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Arundhati R Sawant, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Elke Schäeffner, Kathryn Schelonka, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Soraya Seedat, Mario Šekerija, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván‐Mori, Hosein Shabaninejad, Katya Anne Shackelford, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Amira Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Raad Shakir, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Heidar Sharafi, Kiomars Sharafi, Mehdi Sharif, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Jun She, Aziz Sheikh, Peilin Shi, Kenji Shibuya, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Ivy Shiue, Farhad Shokraneh, Sharvari Shukla, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Abla Mehio Sibai, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdóttir, Naris Silpakit, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Narayana Sarma V. Singam, Ambrish Singh, Narinder Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Karen Sliwa, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Soheila Sobhani, Moslem Soofi, Joan B. Soriano, Ireneous N Soyiri, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vladimir I. Starodubov, Caitlyn Steiner, Leo G Stewart, Mark A. Stokes, Mark Strong, Michelle Subart, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Gerhard Sulo, Bruno Sunguya, Patrick John Sur, Ipsita Sutradhar, Bryan L. Sykes, PN Sylaja, Dillon O Sylte, Cassandra Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Karen M. Tabb, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Nikhil Tandon, Aberash Abay Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel Tassew, Nuno Taveira, Nega Yimer Tawye, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, T. Tekalign, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Manaye Yihune Teshale, Belay Tessema, Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin, Jarnail Singh Thakur, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Nihal Thomas, A. J. Thomson, Binyam Tilahun, Quyen G. To, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Anna E Torre, Miguel Tortajada‐Girbés, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Hideaki Toyoshima, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Srikanth Tripathy, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Nu Thi Truong, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Amanuel Tsegay, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Lorainne Tudor Car, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Muhammad Usman, Olalekan A. Uthman, Selen Begüm Uzun, Muthiah Vaduganathan, Afsane Vaezi, Gaurang Vaidya, Pascual Valdéz, Elena A. Varavikova, Santosh Varughese, Tommi Vasankari, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Santos Villafaina, Francesco Saverio Violante, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Kia Vosoughi, Isidora S Vujcic, Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew, Yasir Waheed, Judd L. Walson, Yanping Wang, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Justyna Widecka, Katarzyna Widecka, Tissa Wijeratne, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Charles Wolfe, Shouling Wu, Grant M. A. Wyper, Gelin Xu, Tomohide Yamada, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Yasin Jemal Yasin, Pengpeng Ye, Gökalp Kadri Yentür, Alex Yeshaneh, Ebrahim M Yimer, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z Younis, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Chuanhua Yu, Vesna Zadnik, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Zohreh Zare, Mulugeta Molla Zeleke, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Xueying Zhang, Xiu‐Ju Zhao, Maigeng Zhou, Jun Zhu, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Sanjay Zodpey, Leo Zoeckler, Alan D Lopez, Stephen S Lim - The Lancet 2018 被引用: 495

BACKGROUND: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.