Can Animal Models of Disease Reliably Inform Human Studies?
Animal experiments have contributed much to our understanding of mechanisms of disease, but their value in predicting the effectiveness of treatment strategies in clinical trials has remained controversial [1-3]. In fact, clinical trials are essential because animal studies do not predict with sufficient certainty what will happen in humans. In a review of animal studies published in seven leading scientific journals of high impact, about one-third of the studies translated at the level of human randomised trials, and one-tenth of the interventions, were subsequently approved for use in patients [1]. However, these were studies of high impact (median citation count, 889), and less frequently cited animal research probably has a lower likelihood of translation to the clinic. Depending on one's perspective, this attrition rate of 90% may be viewed as either a failure or as a success, but it serves to illustrate the magnitude of the difficulties in translation that beset even findings of high impact.