Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

著者: Bin Zhou, James Bentham, Mariachiara Di Cesare, Honor Bixby, Goodarz Danaei, Kaveh Hajifathalian, Cristina Taddei, Rodrigo M. Carrillo‐Larco, Shirin Djalalinia, Shahab Khatibzadeh, Charles Lugero, Niloofar Peykari, Wanzhu Zhang, James E. Bennett, Ver Bilano, Gretchen A Stevens, Melanie Cowan, Leanne M Riley, Zhengming Chen, Ian Hambleton, Rod T Jackson, André Pascal Kengne, Young‐Ho Khang, Avula Laxmaiah, Jing Liu, Reza Malekzadeh, Hannelore Neuhauser, Maroje Sorić, Gregor Starc, Johan Sundström, Mark Woodward, Majid Ezzati, Leandra Abarca-Gómez, Ziad Abdeen, Niveen Abu-Rmeileh, Benjamín Acosta-Cázares, Robert J. Adams, Wichai Aekplakorn, Kaosar Afsana, Carlos A Aguilar-Salinas, Charles Agyemang, Noor Ani Ahmad, Alireza Ahmadvand, Wolfgang Ahrens, Kamel Ajlouni, N. S. Akhtaeva, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Mohamed M. Ali, Osman Ali, Ala’a Alkerwi, Eman Aly, Deepak Amarapurkar, Philippe Amouyel, Antoinette Amuzu, Lars Bo Andersen, Sigmund A Anderssen, Lars Ängquist, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Daniel Ansong, Hajer Aounallah-Skhiri, Joana Araújo, Inger Ariansen, Tahir Aris, Nimmathota Arlappa, Dominique Arveiler, Krishna K Aryal, Thor Aspelund, Félix Assah, Maria Cecília F Assunção, Mária Avdičová, Ana Azevedo, Fereidoun Azizi, Bontha V. Babu, Suhad Bahijri, Nagalla Balakrishna, Mohamed Bamoshmoosh, Maciej Banach, Piotr Bandosz, José R Banegas, Carlo M Barbagallo, Alberto Barceló, Amina Barkat, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Mauro Virgílio Gomes de Barros, Iqbal Bata, Anwar Batieha, Batyrbek Assembekov, Louise A. Baur, Robert Beaglehole, Habiba Ben Romdhane, Mikhail Benet Rodríguez, L. Scott Benson, Antonio Bernabé‐Ortiz, Gailute Bernotiene, Heloisa Bettiol, Aroor Bhagyalaxmi, Sumit Bharadwaj, Santosh K. Bhargava, Yufang Bi, Mukharram M Bikbov, Bihungum Bista, Peter Bjerregaard, Espen Bjertness, Marius B Bjertness, Cecilia Björkelund, Anneke Blokstra, Simona Bo, Martin Bobák, Heiner Boeing, Jose G Boggia, Carlos P Boissonnet, Vanina Bongard, Rossana Borchini, Pascal Bovet, Lutgart Braeckman, Imperia Brajkovich, Francesco Branca, Juergen Breckenkamp, Hermann Brenner, Lizzy M. Brewster, Graziella Bruno, H. Bas Bueno‐de‐Mesquita, Anna Bugge, Con Burns, Michael Bursztyn, Antonio Cabrera de León, Joseph Cacciottolo, Hui Cai, Christine Cameron, Günay Can, Ana Paula Carlos Cândido, Vincenzo Capuano, Viviane C Cardoso, Axel C. Carlsson, Maria J Carvalho, Felipe F. Casanueva, Juan-Pablo Casas, Carmelo A Caserta, Snehalatha Chamukuttan, Angelique Chan, Queenie Chan, Himanshu K Chaturvedi, Nishi Chaturvedi, Chien-Jen Chen, Fangfang Chen, Huashuai Chen, Shuohua Chen, Zhengming Chen, Ching‐Yu Cheng, Imane Cherkaoui Dekkaki, Angela Chetrit, Arnaud Chioléro, Shu‐Ti Chiou, Adela Chiriță-Emandi, María‐Dolores Chirlaque, Belong Cho, Yumi Cho, Diego Giulliano Destro Christófaro, Jerzy Chudek, Renata Cífková, Eliza Cinteză, Frank Claessens, Els Clays, Hans Concin, Cyrus Cooper, Rachel Cooper, Tara Coppinger, Simona Costanzo, Dominique Cottel, Chris Cowell, Cora L. Craig, Ana B. Crujeiras, Juan J. de la Cruz, Graziella D’Arrigo, Eleonora d’Orsi, Jean Dallongeville, Albertino Damasceno, Goodarz Danaei, Rachel Dankner, Thomas Meinertz Dantoft, Luc Dauchet, Kairat Davletov, Guy De Backer, Dirk De Bacquer, Giovanni de Gaetano, Stefaan De Henauw, Paula Duarte de Oliveira, Delphine De Smedt, Mohan Deepa, Abbas Dehghan, Hélène Delisle, Valérie Deschamps, Klodian Dhana, Augusto Di Castelnuovo, Juvenal Soares Dias da Costa, Alejandro Díaz, Ty T Dickerson, Shirin Djalalinia, Do Thi Phuong Ha, Chiara Donfrancesco, Silvana P Donoso, Angela Döring, Maria Dorobanţu, Kouamelan Doua, Wojciech Drygas, Virginija Dulskienė, Aleksandar Džakula, Vilnis Dzerve, Elżbieta Dziankowska–Zaborszczyk, Robert Eggertsen, Ulf Ekelund, Jalila El Ati, Paul Elliott, Roberto Elosúa, Rajiv T Erasmus, Cihangir Erem, Louise Eriksen, Johan G Eriksson, Jorge Escobedo-de la Peña, Alun Evans, David Faeh, Caroline Fall, Farshad Farzadfar, Francisco Javier Félix-Redondo, Trevor S Ferguson, Romulo A Fernandes, Daniel Fernández‐Bergés, Daniel Ferrante, Marika Ferrari, Catterina Ferreccio, Jean Ferrières, Joseph D. Finn, Krista Fischer, Bernhard Föger, Leng Huat Foo, Ann‐Sofie Forslund, Maria Forsner, Heba Fouad, Damian K Francis, Maria do Carmo Franco, Oscar H. Franco, Guillermo Frontera, Flávio Danni Fuchs, Sandra Cristina Pereira Costa Fuchs, Yuki Fujita, Takuro Furusawa, Zbigniew Gaciong, Fabio Galvano, Manoli Garcia-de-la-Hera, Dickman Gareta, Sarah P. Garnett, Jean-Michel Gaspoz, Magda Gasull, Louise Gates, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Anoosheh Ghasemian, Anup Ghimire, Simona Giampaoli, Francesco Gianfagna, Tiffany K Gill, Jonathan Giovannelli, Rebecca Goldsmith, Helen Gonçalves, Marcela González‐Gross, Juan P. González‐Rivas, Mariano Bonet Gorbea, Frédèric Gottrand, Sidsel Graff‐Iversen, D Grafnetter, Aneta Grajda, Maria G Grammatikopoulou, Ronald D Gregor, Tomasz Grodzicki, Anders Grøntved, Giuseppe Grosso, Gabriella Gruden, Vera Grujic, Dongfeng Gu, Ong Peng Guan, Elías F. Guðmundsson, Vilmundur Guðnason, Ramiro Guerrero, Idris Guessous, André Luiz Sena Guimarães, Martin Gulliford, Jóhanna Gunnlaugsdóttir, Marc Gunter, Prakash C. Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Oye Gureje, Beata Gurzkowska, Laura Gutiérrez, Félix Gutzwiller, Farzad Hadaegh, Jytte Halkjær, Ian Hambleton, Rebecca Hardy, Rachakulla Hari Kumar, Jun Hata, Alison J Hayes, Jiang He, Yuna He, Marleen Elisabeth, Ana Henriques, Leticia Hernández‐Cadena, Sauli Herrala, Ramin Heshmat, Ilpo Tapani Hihtaniemi, Sai Yin Ho, Suzanne C. Ho, Michael Hobbs, Albert Hofman, Gönül Dinç, Andrea R V R Horimoto, Claudia M Hormiga, Bernardo Lessa Horta, Leila Houti, Christina Howitt, Thein Thein Htay, Aung Soe Htet, Maung Maung Than Htike, Yonghua Hu, José María Huerta, Martijn Huisman, Abdullatif Husseini, Inge Huybrechts, Nahla Hwalla, Licia Iacoviello, Anna G. Iannone, Mohsen M. Ibrahim, Norazizah Ibrahim Wong, Nayu Ikeda, M Arfan Ikram, Vilma Irazola, Muhammad Islam, Aziz Al-Safi Ismail, Vanja Ivković, Masanori Iwasaki, Rod T Jackson, Jeremy M. Jacobs, Hashem Jaddou, Tazeen Jafar, Konrad Jamrozik, Imre Janszky, Grażyna Jasieńska, Ana Jelaković, Bojan Jelaković, Garry Jennings, Seung-lyeal Jeong, Chao Qiang Jiang, Michel Joffres, Mattias Johansson, Jari Jokelainen, Jost B Jonas, Torben Jørgensen, Pradeep Joshi, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Anne Juolevi, Gregor Jurak, Vesna Jureša, Rudolf Kaaks, Anthony Kafatos, Eero O Kajantie, Ofra Kalter‐Leibovici, Nor Azmi Kamaruddin, Khem Bahadur Karki, Amir Kasaeian, Joanne Katz, Jussi Kauhanen, Prabhdeep Kaur, Maryam Kavousi, Gyulli M. Kazakbaeva, Ulrich Keil, Lital Keinan‐Boker, Sirkka Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Roya Kelishadi, Han C. G. Kemper, André Pascal Kengne, Alina Kerimkulova, Mathilde Kersting, Timothy Key, Yousef Khader, Davood Khalili, Young‐Ho Khang, Mohammad Khateeb, Kay-Tee Khaw, Ursula Kiechl-Kohlendorfer, Stefan Kiechl, Japhet Killewo, Jeongseon Kim, Yeon-Yong Kim, Jūratė Klumbienė, Michael Knoflach, Elin Kolle, Patrick Kolsteren, Paul Korrovits, Seppo Koskinen, Katsuyasu Kouda, Sudhir Kowlessur, Sławomir Kozieł, Susi Kriemler, Peter Lund Kristensen, Steinar Krokstad, Daan Kromhout, Herculina Kruger, Růžena Kubínová, Renata Kučienė, Diana Kuh, Urho M. Kujala, Zbigniew Kułaga, Raman Kumar, Pawel Kurjata, Yadlapalli S Kusuma, Kari Kuulasmaa, Catherine Kyobutungi, Tiina Laatikainen, Carl Lachat, Tai Hing Lam, Orlando Landrove, Vera Lanska, Georg Lappas, Bagher Larijani, Lars E. Laugsand, Avula Laxmaiah, Khanh Le Nguyen Bao, Tuyen D. Le, Catherine Leclercq, Jeannette Lee, Jeonghee Lee, Terho Lehtimäki, Luz M. León‐Muñoz, Naomi Levitt, Yanping Li, Christa L. Lilly, Wei-Yen Lim, Maria Fernanda Lima‐Costa, Hsien-Ho Lin, Xu Lin, Lars Lind, Allan Linneberg, Lauren Lissner, Mieczysław Litwin, Jing Liu, Roberto Lorbeer, Paulo A Lotufo, José Eugenio Lozano, Dalia Lukšienė, Annamari Lundqvist, Nuno Lunet, Per Lytsy, Guansheng Ma, Jun Ma, George Luiz Lins Machado-Coelho, Suka Machi, Stefania Maggi, Dianna J. Magliano, Emmanuella Magriplis, Marjeta Majer, Márcia Makdisse, Reza Malekzadeh, Rahul Malhotra, Kodavanti Mallikharjuna Rao, Sofia Malyutina, Yannis Μanios, Jim Mann, Enzo Manzato, Paula Margozzini, Pedro Marques‐Vidal, Larissa Pruner Marques, Jaume Marrugat, Reynaldo Martorell, Ellisiv B Mathiesen, Alícia Matijasevich, Tandi E. Matsha, Jean Claude Mbanya, Anselmo J Mc Donald Posso, Shelly McFarlane, Stephen T. McGarvey, Stela McLachlan, Rachael McLean, Scott B McLean, Breige McNulty, Sounnia Médiène-Benchekor, Jūratė Medžionienė, Aline Meirhaeghe, Christa Meisinger, Ana Maria B. Menezes, Geetha R. Menon, Indrapal I Meshram, Andres Metspalu, Helmut E. Meyer, Jie Mi, Kairit Mikkel, Jody C Miller, Cláudia S. Minderico, Juan Francisco, J. Jaime Miranda, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Marjeta Mišigoj‐Duraković, Pietro Amedeo Modesti, Mostafa K. Mohamed, Kazem Mohammad, Noushin Mohammadifard, Viswanathan Mohan, Salim Mohanna, Muhammad Fadhli Mohd Yusoff, Line T. Møllehave, Niels Christian Møller, Dénes Molnár, Amirabbas Momenan, Charles Mondo, Kotsedi Daniel K Monyeki, Jin Soo Moon, Leila B Moreira, Alain Morejón, Luis A Moreno, Karen Morgan, George Moschonis, Małgorzata Mossakowska, Aya Mostafa, Jorge Mota, Mohammad Esmaeel Motlagh, Jorge Motta, Kelias P Msyamboza, Thet Thet Mu, Maria L. Muiesan, Martina Müller‐Nurasyid, Neil Murphy, Jaakko Mursu, Vera Musil, Iraj Nabipour, Gabriele Nagel, Balkish Mahadir Naidu, Harunobu Nakamura, Jana Námešná, Ei Ei K Nang, Vinay Nangia, Sameer Narake, Matthias Nauck, Eva María Navarrete‐Muñoz, Ndeye Coumba Ndiaye, William A. Neal, Ilona Nenko, Martin Neovius, Flavio Nervi, Hannelore K Neuhauser, Chung T Nguyen, Nguyen D Nguyen, Quang Ngoc Nguyen, Quang V Nguyen, Ramfis Nieto‐Martínez, Teemu Niiranen, Guang Ning, Toshiharu Ninomiya, Sania Nishtar, Marianna Noale, Óscar Noboa, Ahmad Ali Noorbala, Teresa Norat, Davide Noto, Mohannad Al Nsour, Dermot O'Reilly, Eiji Oda, Glenn Oehlers, Kyungwon Oh, Kumiko Ohara, Maria Teresa Anselmo Olinto, Isabel O Oliveira, Mohd Azahadi Omar, Altan Onat, Sok King Ong, Lariane M Ono, Pedro Ordúñez, Rui Ornelas, Clive Osmond, Sergej M. Ostojic, Afshin Ostovar, Johanna Otero, Kim Overvad, Ellis Owusu-Dabo, Fred Paccaud, Cristina Padez, Elena Pahomova, Andrzej Pająk, Domenico Palli, Luigi Palmieri, Wen‐Harn Pan, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Francesco Panza, Dimitrios Papandreou, Soon-Woo Park, Winsome R Parnell, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Nikhil D Patel, Ivan Pećin, Mangesh S. Pednekar, Nasheeta Peer, Petra H. Peeters, Sérgio Viana Peixoto, Markku Peltonen, Alexandre C. Pereira, Annette Peters, Astrid Petersmann, Janina Petkeviciene, Niloofar Peykari, Son Thai Pham, Iris Pigeot, Hynek Pikhart, Aida Pilav, Lorenza Pilotto, Freda Pitakaka, Aleksandra Piwońska, Pedro Plans-Rubió, Ozren Polašek, Miquel Porta, Marileen L.P. Portegies, Akram Pourshams, Hossein Poustchi, Rajendra Pradeepa, Prashant Mathur, Jacqueline F Price, Jardena J. Puder, Maria Puiu, Margus Punab, Radwan F Qasrawi, Mostafa Qorbani, Tran Quoc Bao, Ivana Radić, Ričardas Radišauskas, Mahfuzar Rahman, Olli Raitakari, Manu Raj, Sudha Ramachandra Rao, Ambady Ramachandran, Elisabete Ramos, Lekhraj Rampal, Sanjay Rampal, Daniel A Rangel Reina, Josep Redón, Paul Ferdinand M Reganit, Robespierre Ribeiro, Elio Ríboli, Fernando Rigo, Tobias F Rinke de Wit, Raphael Mendes Ritti‐Dias, Siân Robinson, Cynthia Robitaille, Fernando Rodríguez-Artalejo, María del Cristo Rodriguez-Perez, Laura Andrea Rodríguez-Villamizar, Rosalba Rojas, Dora Romaguera, Kimmo Ronkainen, Annika Rosengren, Joel G R Roy, Adolfo Rubinstein, Blanca Sandra Ruiz-Betancourt, Marcin Rutkowski, Charumathi Sabanayagam, Harshpal Singh Sachdev, Olfa Saidi, Sibel Sakarya, Benoît Salanave, Eduardo Salazar Martinez, Diego Salmerón, Veikko Salomaa, Jukka T. Salonen, Massimo Salvetti, José Sánchez-Abanto, Susana Sans, Diana A. Santos, Ina S Santos, Renata Nunes dos Santos, Rute Santos, Jouko Saramies, Luís B. Sardinha, Giselle Sarganas, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Kai‐Uwe Saum, Savvas Savva, Márcia Scazufca, Hermán Schargrodsky, Sabine Schipf, Carsten Oliver Schmidt, Ben Schöttker, Constance Schultsz, Aletta E. Schutte, Aye Aye Sein, Abhijit Sen, Idowu O Senbanjo, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Sanjib Kumar Sharma, Jonathan E Shaw, Kenji Shibuya, Dong Wook Shin, Youchan Shin, Khairil Si-Ramlee, Rosalynn Siantar, Abla Mehio Sibai, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Mary Simon, Judith Simons, Leon A Simons, Michael Sjöstróm, Sine Skovbjerg, Jolanta Slowikowska-Hilczer, Przemyslaw Slusarczyk, Liam Smeeth, Margaret Smith, Marieke B. Snijder, Hung‐Kwan So, Eugène Sobngwi, Stefan Söderberg, Vincenzo Solfrizzi, Emily Sonestedt, Yi Song, Thorkild I. A. Sørensen, Maroje Sorić, Charles Sossa Jérome, Aïcha Soumaré, Jan A. Staessen, Gregor Starc, Maria G. Stathopoulou, Bill Stavreski, Jostein Steene-Johannessen, Peter Stehle, Aryeh D. Stein, George S. Stergiou, Jochanan Stessman, Jutta Stieber, Doris Stöckl, Tanja Stocks, Jakub Stokwiszewski, Karien Stronks, Maria Wany Louzada Strufaldi, Chien‐An Sun, Johan Sundström, Yn-Tz Sung, Paibul Suriyawongpaisal, Rody G. Sy, E Shyong Tai, Mari‐Liis Tammesoo, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Eng Joo Tan, Xun Tang, Frank Tanser, Yong Tao, Mohammed Rasoul Tarawneh, Carolina Tarqui-Mamani, Oana-Florentina Tautu, Anne Taylor, Holger Theobald, Xenophon Theodoridis, Lutgarde Thijs, Betina H. Thuesen, Anne Tjønneland, Hanna K. Tolonen, Janne Schurmann Tolstrup, Murat Topbaş, Roman Topór-Madry, María José Tormo, Maties Torrent, Pierre Traissac, Dimitrios Trichopoulos, Antonia Trichopoulou, Oanh T. H. Trinh, Atul Trivedi, Lechaba Tshepo, Marshall K Tulloch-Reid, Fikru Tullu, Tomi-Pekka Tuomainen, Jaakko Tuomilehto, Maria L Turley, Per Tynelius, Christophe Tzourio, Peter Ueda, Eunice Ugel, Hanno Ulmer, Hannu Uusitalo, Gonzalo Valdívia, Damaskini Valvi, Yvonne T. van der Schouw, Koen Van Herck, Hoàng Văn Minh, Lenie van Rossem, Natasja M. van Schoor, Irene G. M. van Valkengoed, Dirk Vanderschueren, Diego Vanuzzo, Lars Vatten, Tomás Vega, Gustavo Velásquez-Meléndez, Giovanni Veronesi, W. M. Monique Verschuren, Roosmarijn Verstraeten, César G. Victora, Lucie Viet, Eira Viikari‐Juntura, Paolo Vineis, Jesús Vioqué, Jyrki K. Virtanen, Sophie Visvikis‐Siest, Bharathi Viswanathan, Tiina Vlasoff, Péter Vollenweider, Sari Voutilainen, Alisha N. Wade, Aline Wagner, Janette Walton, Wan Mohamad Wan Bebakar, Wan Nazaimoon Wan Mohamud, Rildo S Wanderley, Ming-Dong Wang, Qian Wang, Ya Xing Wang, Ying-Wei Wang, S Goya Wannamethee, Nicholas J. Wareham, Niels Wedderkopp, Deepa Weerasekera, Peter H. Whincup, Kurt Widhalm, Indah Suci Widyahening, Andrzej Więcek, Alet H. Wijga, Rainford J Wilks, Johann Willeit, Peter Willeit, Emmanuel Ato Williams, Tom Wilsgaard, Bogdan Wojtyniak, Roy A Wong-McClure, Justin Y Y Wong, Tien Yin Wong, Jean Woo, Mark Woodward, Aleksander Giwercman Wu, Frederick C Wu, Shouling Wu, Haiquan Xu, Weili Yan, Xiaoguang Yang, Xingwang Ye, Panayiotis K Yiallouros, Akihiro Yoshihara, Novie O Younger-Coleman, Ahmad Faudzi Yusoff, Ahmad Ali Zainuddin, Sabina Zambon, Antonis Zampelas, Tomasz Zdrojewski, Yi Zeng, Dong Zhao, Wen­hua Zhao, Wei Zheng, Yingfeng Zheng, Dan Zhu, Baurzhan Zhussupov, Esther Zimmermann, Julio Zúñiga Cisneros - International Journal of Epidemiology 2018 被引用: 84

BACKGROUND: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. METHODS: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. RESULTS: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. CONCLUSIONS: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.